Abstract
Large scale emergencies are part of life that can require mass evacuations. Planning for such emergencies is an important component of traffic management to minimize any losses arising due to them. As human cognitive behaviour plays an important role during response to emergencies, understanding such cognitive behavior will help us plan better. The cognitive behavior of each individual driver agent may include greed (hurry), mob mentality and other unexpected biases which may slowdown the clearing up of traffic. To provide an efficient solution to this problem, we study the effect of human cognitive behaviors on traffic patterns during an emergency situation. We make the assumption that during the emergency, there are traffic police or other personnel trying to guide the vehicles so that the traffic clearance is sped up (to minimize the human or property losses), as they have a global view of the emergency and have accurate real-time updates. Another assumption is that the traffic police use the Ford-Fulkerson Algorithm, which is a standard algorithm to perform an efficient evacuation using flow model, to maximize the flow in the (traffic) network and then perform an extensive agent based analysis to study the traffic patterns that arise due to a variety of human factors and biases.
While human biases can cause disruption to plans generated by the Ford Fulkerson algorithm, there are situations where we may want encourage behaviors such as greed. For example, we may want an ambulance to reach its destination at the earliest possible time hence would like it to display a greedy behavior. This implies that different vehicles may need to have different priorities. Current evacuation models, including Ford-Fulkerson and other known algorithms, overlook such a scenario, and treat all the vehicles as same. To overcome this drawback, we also focus on the problem of prioritized routing of vehicles without affecting the overall evacuation time. Prioritized routing may happen even during normal times, but it becomes even more important during emergencies, as emergency vehicles, police vehicles and large vehicles (such as buses) that carry a lot of people need to have a higher priority in terms of evacuation.
To summarize, we study the following two problems in this thesis: (a) How human biases effect plans made for emergency evacuation (b) Incorporate priority of vehicles when generating plan for evacuation. Through a series of experiments performed using the well-known traffic simulator SUMO, we make the following contributions: (a) We validate that Ford-Fulkerson Algorithm is indeed efficient for clearance of vehicles in case of non-prioritized evacuation (b) Driver agents that do not follow the specified directions due to their preferences and biases lose out on an average (c) In line with our expectations, we find that having a prior knowledge and/or real-time updates about the environment can indeed offset the effect of human biases to a good extent. (d) We map the prioritized routing problem to the minimum-cost maximum-flow problem, a standard problem formulation in network flow theory. (e) We then develop the Prioritized Routing Assistant for Flow of Traffic (PRAFT) that casts the prioritized routing problem which includes a notion of priority of vehicles and priority of routes into the minimum cost maximum flow problem. (f) Through a series of experiments performed using the well-known traffic simulator SUMO, we could establish that PRAFT indeed maps higher priority vehicles to better quality routes and is monotonic in the sense that decreasing priority order of vehicles maps to a decreasing route quality.